Friday, April 20, 2012

Intuit (INTU): Entering Shleifer Effect Watchlist

Intuit, developer of Quickbooks, TurboTax and Mint.com, announced today that its revenue might meet or fall below Wall Street expectations. Shares fell nearly five percent. (See a brief write-up from Bloomberg here and Intuit's release here.)

The Finviz.com chart below shows that the drop is big as a one-day event, but investors have demonstrated a lot of optimism about the company's prospects over the past year as the price has appreciated about 50 percent. As I posted yesterday, it's a dangerous thing to buy in on optimism.

I'll hold off on any analysis now and wait for the actual earnings announcement due in about a month. If we get more news that the investment community interprets as bad, perhaps we'll have a live one to pursue. For now, it's on the watchlist.


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